China’s military ambitions in 2024 reveal a clear and alarming trajectory towards global dominance, with its expanding military capabilities, opaque budget practices, and aggressive regional posturing posing significant threats to international stability. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to prioritize becoming a “world-class military” by 2049, but the means by which Beijing seeks to achieve this reveal a calculated disregard for international norms and a growing tendency towards coercion.
Modernization and Aggression: PLA’s Expanding Arsenal
The PLA has undergone significant modernization, aiming to integrate advanced technologies across land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace domains. By 2024, the PLA Navy (PLAN) had grown into the largest navy globally, boasting over 370 ships and submarines. This includes modern multi-mission vessels capable of operations beyond the First Island Chain (FIC). Notably, the PLAN conducted three record deployments of the carrier CV-17 Shandong to the Philippine Sea, a stark display of Beijing’s maritime ambitions.
China’s air force has similarly advanced, with rapid indigenization of aircraft and unmanned aerial systems that now rival U.S. standards. Meanwhile, the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) has significantly enhanced its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, signaling a shift towards greater nuclear readiness. By mid-2024, China’s nuclear arsenal surpassed 600 warheads, with projections indicating over 1,000 by 2030.
Budgetary Deception and Military-Civil Fusion
China’s defense spending paints an opaque and alarming picture. Officially reported expenditures of $330 to $450 billion vastly understate the true scope of PLA’s military budget, with experts estimating actual spending to be 40% to 90% higher than declared. This lack of transparency raises critical concerns about Beijing’s intentions.
Compounding these concerns is China’s military-civil fusion strategy, which integrates civilian infrastructure and resources into military objectives. This strategy blurs the lines between civilian and military sectors, effectively mobilizing commercial assets for Beijing’s expansionist agenda. For instance, civilian shipping networks are increasingly leveraged for strategic military purposes, underscoring the PLA’s capability to rapidly mobilize forces under the guise of peacetime activities.
Regional and Global Aggression
China’s aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea (SCS) highlight its willingness to use force to achieve territorial ambitions. In 2023, Beijing’s maritime forces employed water cannons, military-grade lasers, and even ramming tactics against Philippine vessels conducting lawful maritime operations. These actions, which violate international law, underscore Beijing’s disdain for diplomatic resolution and its intent to solidify unlawful claims in the region.
The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command continues to prepare for potential conflict with Taiwan, conducting exercises like JOINT SWORD to simulate invasion scenarios. Beyond Taiwan, China’s Western Theater Command intensifies its focus on India and Central Asia, with the strategic goal of asserting dominance in disputed territorieS.
Technological Espionage and Global Presence
China’s reliance on espionage to acquire dual-use technologies further exemplifies its disregard for international norms. The PLA’s pursuit of next-generation combat capabilities, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and hypersonic missiles, is heavily reliant on stolen intellectual property and coerced technology transfers. This approach not only undermines global technological security but also reveals Beijing’s inability to achieve its goals through legitimate means.
China’s overseas military activities are equally concerning. Beyond its Djibouti base, Beijing is actively planning additional overseas logistics facilities to project and sustain military power at greater distances. These developments reflect a shift in China’s global posture, aiming to counterbalance U.S. influence and expand Beijing’s geopolitical reach.
The Cost of Expansionism
China’s military trajectory is not without risks. By prioritizing aggressive militarization, Beijing faces the danger of economic overextension and international isolation. Its coercive tactics have galvanized opposition among democratic nations, with Taiwan and the Philippines emerging as vocal critics of Chinese aggression. The international community must recognize Beijing’s ambitions as a direct challenge to global peace and act decisively to counter this threat.
As China accelerates its quest for dominance, its actions reveal a nation willing to prioritize power over principles. The PLA’s rapid expansion, coupled with its disregard for transparency and international law, demands a unified response from global powers. Failing to confront this rising threat risks undermining decades of efforts to maintain a rules-based international order.
Data Highlighting PLA’s Threat
“The PLA’s operational behaviors, particularly in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, are destabilizing and coercive, challenging international norms,” -sources -2024 PLA Military Movement Report.
“By mid-2024, China’s nuclear arsenal surpassed 600 warheads, with a trajectory to exceed 1,000 by 2030, illustrating a rapid escalation in its strategic deterrence capabilities”.
Experts estimate China’s actual defense spending to be 40% to 90% higher than its public figures, revealing a lack of transparency that masks Beijing’s true military ambitions.
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