China’s actual war preparations vs what it projects.

China Masquerading War Backfiring?

Is China truly prepared for war despite its military impotence and glaring weaknesses?

It’s no secret that China has been looming the threat of potential war, since the growing tension between China and the west has been steadily peaking. While the Red Dragon’s border conflict with its neighbor states continues to be a source of global concern.

November 08,2022 President Xi Jinping ordered the PLA to devote all its energies to enhance capability and maintaining combat readiness to fight and win wars as he took charge of the military for a record third five-year term. In his address to the 2 million strong Army (the largest in the world) he told the PLA to “improve training and preparation for war in all aspects and improve the ability of the army to fight and win”.

But how ready are China under president Xi? October 2020, the Chinese Communist Party established a new milestone date of 2027 for Xi’s Three step Development strategy for Defense Modernization. The PLA maintained 2035 as the second milestone date by which the PLA will have incorporated

1.Mechanized-able to mobilize quickly over vast distance,

2.Informationised-operations driven by comprehensive reconnaissance and precision strike weaponry and

3.Intelligentised-campaigns performed through combat systems facilitated by artificial intelligence to compress decision loops warfare. The final milestone of Xi’s three-step plan is 2049 when the PLA is set to attain the status of being a ‘world class military’.

But there are glaring weaknesses in the PLA military which prevents it from achieving their projected might.

1. The last time China’s participated in actual warfare dates back to 1979. Hence it is apt to conclude that the PLA doesn’t understand the intensity of actual warfare. The most combat it has seen has been throwing stones at the military border in a melee scuffle along the Indi-Sino Border.
2. Although President Xi has allocated a sizable budget for Military defense budget it lacks the quality and number of personnels to match the modernized technological service which includes the Navy, Air Force, rocket force and strategic support.
3. The increasing military budget expenditure and the cost of maintaining its military assets would certainly negatively impact the capital expenditure in the coming future, causing dissent among the tax paying public.
4. The lack of advanced integrated command and control system pose a challenge regarding transportation, efficient communication, co-ordination between military branches across vast distances.
5. Despite China’s recent military technology investments, the military still depends on imported technology. As the indigenous technology is lacking compared to its rivals.
6. China’s reluctance to share its military capabilities continues to incur concerns from nations across the world, increasing suspicion among other nations which could sour its relations on the global stage.

Despite the United States being PLA’s primary antagonist, China has territorial disputes with 17 neighboring states in the Asiatic region, regarding both land and sea. Including maritime altercations with Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, North Korea, Singapore, Brunei and the Philippines. Its Land disputes with India, Nepal, Bhutan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar and Tibet in recent times have witnessed an escalation primarily due to Chinese intrusive actions. Which could potentially lead to a South-East-Asian multi nation combined stance against the Chinese regime at the global front. Further restricting China’s expansionist stance across these nations.

In an article published in Beijing based online portal Sohu, it is recorded that China must take 6 “inevitable” wars between 2020-2050. Which included a war to unify Taiwan by 2025, followed by the Spratly islands by 2030, the annexation of Southern Tibet(Arunachal Pradesh) from India by 2040 and Senkaku Islands from Japan by 2050. Integration of outer Mongolia and Taking back lost lands from Russia. Which would result in China becoming a global Hegemon.

Xi’s PLA certainly seems to be acting in line with this article, as China’s growing activities to claim Taiwan as its territory citing old historical claims have led to these 2 nations on the brink of armed conflict. But although China has much to gain from integrating Taiwan it also faces unprecedented economic and political blowbacks which could shatter its expansionist ideology.

Even assuming no sanctions or military escalations with US, trade between China and the rest of the world would be severely affected by disruptions to global trade finances, much like the situation that Russia is currently in. In the event of a conflict between Taiwan and China the risk averse global investors would pull back from lending activities, reducing trade finances and impairing international trade. As bank reduce exposure to Chinese counterparts in expectations of financial sanctions. With a potential to disrupt more than 270$billion in trade between Chinese corporations and the rest of the world.

Domestic economic conditions in China would deteriorate quickly since the largest exporter of ICT goods global production hubs of automotive goods losing access to Taiwanese semi-conductor would cripple the market. These would lead to China’s exchange rates plunging to a rate that even China’s capital controls and PBOC would be unable to fully contain.

These problems also discount the global political sanctions and the thinned out Chinese military due to the astronomical number of border disputes with its neighboring countries who might wrestle back control over these areas and the US who certainly won’t let such an opportunity to regain its control over the global reign economically and politically.

Although China might boast the largest army on the planet, its strength on paper doesn’t match the power it projects, due to its glaringly obvious weaknesses that have yet to be shored up. Xi might think that China’s ready to take over global hegemony with his aggressive military stance but their actions could certainly backfire in spectacular fashion.