Tibet was hit by two earthquakes in quick succession on Wednesday, raising fresh alarms over the safety and long-term viability of China’s massive Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project. The back-to-back tremors underscore the region’s extreme geological instability and have reignited debate over the wisdom of placing such infrastructure in a high-risk seismic zone.
The first earthquake, with a magnitude of 4.3, struck at 6:58 AM IST near the Tibet–Nepal border. The second, measuring 4.0, occurred at 11:31 AM. Both quakes were shallow, with an estimated depth of just 10 kilometers, intensifying the ground shaking and increasing the risk of aftershocks. These incidents coincided with heavy monsoon rains across the Tibetan Plateau, leading to localized flooding and further stressing infrastructure in the region.
Tibet is one of the most seismically active zones in the world due to the ongoing collision between the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. This tectonic movement not only gave rise to the Himalayas but also causes frequent and sometimes devastating earthquakes. A powerful reminder came on 7 January 2025, when a 7.1-magnitude quake hit Tingri County in Shigatse, killing hundreds and causing widespread damage.
Despite this well-documented geological volatility, the Chinese government is moving ahead with the construction of the world’s largest hydroelectric project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River. Estimated at $167 billion, the project aims to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually—three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam.
Located in Medog County, Nyingchi Prefecture, the project sits in a seismically sensitive region near multiple fault lines. Geologists and environmental experts have warned that a significant earthquake could damage or destabilize the dam, potentially leading to catastrophic landslides or reservoir failure. The combination of rugged terrain, monsoon patterns, and tectonic instability compounds these risks.
There are additional geopolitical and environmental implications. The Yarlung Tsangpo flows downstream into India and Bangladesh as the Brahmaputra River, making it a critical transboundary water source. India and Bangladesh have repeatedly expressed concern over Beijing’s unilateral control of the river. Both fear that the dam could be used to manipulate water flow, especially during periods of conflict or political tension.
Environmental groups have also raised red flags. The dam threatens one of the most biodiverse and ecologically fragile areas on the planet. Sacred cultural sites and indigenous Tibetan communities are at risk. Many locals have been displaced, often without proper consultation or compensation.
China portrays the dam as a green energy milestone and a tool to revitalize its slowing economy. However, critics argue that the project’s primary objectives are political and strategic—using water as a lever of regional influence while sidelining environmental safety and human rights.
The absence of independent oversight, transparent risk assessments, or international agreements on water sharing further fuels these concerns. With the region already experiencing significant seismic and climate-related challenges, experts warn that the consequences of dam failure could be far-reaching, affecting millions both upstream and downstream.
As Tibet continues to experience the dual pressures of natural disaster and engineered infrastructure, the international community faces growing questions: Is the Yarlung Tsangpo dam a necessary energy initiative—or a high-risk geopolitical gamble?
