Former U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping personally assured him that Beijing would not invade Taiwan while Trump was in office. Trump made the statement during an interview with Fox News, adding that Xi told him: “I will never do it as long as you’re president.”
At first glance, this seems like a guarantee of restraint. But in reality, Xi’s words are more loaded than they appear. They could be read less as a promise of peace and more as a sly challenge: “Let’s see how long you can remain president.”
Xi’s Patience, Trump’s Term Limits
Xi reportedly added: “I am very patient, and China is very patient.” That is the language of a long-game strategist, not a peacemaker. Patience here is not about avoiding war, it is about waiting for the right geopolitical window.
While Trump points to the comment as evidence of his personal sway over Xi, Taiwanese scholars warn it is no real guarantee. As Shen Ming-shih of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research put it, Beijing’s promises of peace are “meaningless,” since China will shred any assurance the moment it believes military aggression serves its goals.
Xi vs. Trump: A Relationship Defined by Tension
Xi’s alleged assurance stands in sharp contrast to how aggressively Beijing sought to undermine Trump’s presidency. Far from being “cordial partners,” Xi and Trump clashed on nearly every front:
- Trade War: Trump launched sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods, accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices, currency manipulation, and intellectual property theft. Xi retaliated with tariffs on U.S. exports, escalating one of the largest trade wars in modern history.
- Cyber Operations: U.S. intelligence repeatedly warned that Chinese state-backed hackers attempted to target U.S. political institutions, infrastructure, and businesses during Trump’s term. In September 2020, Microsoft revealed Chinese hackers were probing the Trump campaign and other U.S. election targets.
- COVID-19 Tensions: Trump repeatedly called COVID-19 the “China virus,” accusing Beijing of covering up its origins. Xi responded with propaganda campaigns and aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy designed to humiliate Trump on the world stage.
- Global Influence Campaigns: From disinformation on social media to weaponizing state-run media, Beijing sought to portray Trump as erratic, incompetent, and unfit for leadership, subtly signaling its preference for his defeat in 2020.
Xi did everything in his power to tilt the scales against Trump, hardly the behavior of a man who respected or trusted him.
Taiwan Caught in the Middle
For Taiwan, Xi’s supposed words offer little comfort. As Prospect Foundation deputy executive director Song Cheng-en noted, this is the first time Trump openly acknowledged Taiwan in a positive light, but the real danger lies in Xi’s phrasing. By emphasizing patience, Xi revealed that Beijing’s ambition to take Taiwan by force remains unchanged only the timeline is flexible.
Taiwanese analysts are unanimous: Taipei cannot lower its guard. Strengthening self-defense and securing international support remain the only safeguards against becoming a bargaining chip between Beijing and Washington.
The Reality Behind Xi’s “Promise”
The bigger picture is clear. Xi’s message to Trump was not one of friendship, but of calculation. By saying “not while you’re president,” Xi was effectively signaling that China would simply wait him out. Combined with Beijing’s simultaneous efforts to weaken Trump’s presidency from trade pressure to cyber operations, the statement reads less like a promise and more like a taunt.
Xi was telling Trump: “Your presidency is temporary. My rule is not. I will outlast you.”
And as Taiwan knows too well, patience from Beijing has never meant peace, only preparation.
