YES, CHINA CAN BE PUSHED BACK: PHILIPPINES EMERGES VICTORIOUS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA STANDOFF

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China can be pushed back Phillipines win

Yuchen Li, Taipei | June 25, 2024

Tensions in the South China Sea have been running high after a recent violent clash between Chinese coast guard personnel and Filipino troops. The Philippines has shown resilience and strategic prowess, pushing back against Chinese aggression, marking a significant diplomatic and strategic victory.

On June 17, 2024, a violent confrontation occurred when Chinese coast guard personnel rammed and boarded Philippine naval boats during a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal). The Chinese coast guard confiscated weapons from the Filipino troops and injured several, including one sailor who lost his thumb. Videos published by the Philippine military depicted the Chinese personnel armed with swords, spears, and knives, acting aggressively and forcefully. The Philippine officials condemned the Chinese behavior as akin to “pirates,” while Beijing justified its actions as “necessary measures” to protect their sovereignty.

In response to the clash, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. firmly stated that the Philippines “cannot yield” and will continue to assert its territorial rights in the South China Sea. During his annual State of the Nation Address on July 22, 2024, Marcos emphasized the importance of addressing territorial disputes through diplomatic channels while maintaining the country’s sovereign claims.

“Without naming China, Marcos said the Philippines will address challenges to its territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea, known as the West Philippine Sea in Manila, by asserting “our rights and interests in the same fair and pacific way that we have always done”. The Philippines will continue to “find ways to de-escalate tensions in contested areas … without compromising our position and our principles”, he said. “The Philippines cannot yield. The Philippines cannot waver,” Marcos declared, receiving a standing ovation from Congress. “The West Philippine Sea … is ours.”

Amidst the heightened tensions, Manila and Beijing reached a “provisional agreement” aimed at de-escalating the situation. The agreement allows for the resupply of Filipino troops stationed at the contested Second Thomas Shoal without prior notification to China, a significant diplomatic win for the Philippines. The agreement, reached through meticulous consultations, was designed to manage differences peacefully without compromising national positions.

“In our desire to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea to manage differences in a peaceful manner, we emphasize that the agreement was done in good faith and the Philippines remains ready to implement it,” the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. “We urge China to do the same.”

China confirmed a “provisional agreement” with the two sides agreeing to jointly manage maritime differences and de-escalate the situation. Beijing reiterated its demand for the Philippines to tow away the grounded warship and said it would not accept Manila shipping large amounts of building materials to the shoal. “Between now and when the warship is towed away, should the Philippines need to send living necessities to the personnel living on the warship, China is willing to allow it in a humanitarian spirit if the Philippines informs China in advance and after on-site verification is conducted,” the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. The Philippines has previously said it was against informing China in advance about its resupply missions, which it maintains are lawful, and said this had not changed under the new deal despite the statement from the Chinese ministry.
China, which has long asserted its claims over almost the entire South China Sea through its so-called nine-dash line, faced a setback with this agreement. Beijing’s aggressive tactics have often led to clashes, but this time, the Philippines stood firm and negotiated terms that highlight its sovereignty and strategic importance.

Analysts like Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, have noted the high risk of such confrontations escalating into larger conflicts. However, the Philippines’ diplomatic manoeuvring has demonstrated that China can indeed be pushed back.

Manila’s decision to seek recognition from a United Nations body for the outer limits of its continental shelf in the disputed waters further exemplifies its strategic resilience. Despite Beijing’s denunciation and urging the intergovernmental organization not to review Manila’s appeal, the Philippines has shown unwavering determination in defending its maritime rights.

The recent events underscore a significant shift in the dynamics of the South China Sea dispute. The Philippines’ ability to secure a provisional agreement and assert its rights without yielding to Chinese pressure is a testament to its strategic and diplomatic resilience. This development not only marks a victory for the Philippines but also sets a precedent for other nations facing similar challenges from more assertive powers.

As the situation continues to evolve, the international community will be closely watching how both countries manage their maritime differences. The Philippines has shown that with strategic diplomacy and unwavering resolve, even the most formidable challenges can be met and overcome.

By demonstrating that China can be diplomatically and strategically pushed back, the Philippines has set a powerful example for other nations in the region and beyond. The resilience and tactical diplomacy employed by Manila showcase the effectiveness of steadfast negotiation and the importance of upholding sovereign rights in the face of aggressive tactics.

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