Donald Trump’s likely victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could deliver a crushing blow to China’s economic ambitions, sparking a new wave of trade wars, tariffs, and sanctions designed to curb Beijing’s expansionist policies. As Trump returns to the White House, the U.S. is poised to launch a more aggressive economic assault on China—one that not only challenges Beijing’s global dominance but also forces it to confront its internal economic fragility, human rights abuses, and reliance on unsustainable practices.
Trade Wars and Tariffs: A Nuclear Economic Option
Trump’s campaign has made it clear: his administration will not back down in its economic battle against China. During his first term, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $370 billion worth of Chinese goods, slashing China’s access to the world’s largest consumer market. Under Trump’s proposed new strategy, those tariffs could rise as high as 60%, pushing China to the brink of an economic crisis. In a speech on the campaign trail, Trump remarked, “China has stolen our jobs, our wealth, and our intellectual property. It’s time to take back what’s ours.”
With a global trade war already underway, China’s reliance on U.S. markets makes these tariffs a powerful weapon. China’s exports to the U.S. amounted to $400 billion in 2023 alone, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and any reduction in this trade would devastate China’s economy, which is already grappling with sluggish growth, an aging population, and a massive debt burden.
In 2018, the first round of Trump’s tariffs led to a sharp 5% devaluation of the Chinese yuan, while Chinese manufacturers faced rising production costs and shrinking margins. With the threat of even harsher tariffs looming, the Chinese government will be forced to make difficult decisions, particularly as its economy continues to slow. Analysts are already forecasting a potential contraction in China’s GDP growth to below 3% in 2024, compared to over 6% in previous years. This would exacerbate existing social tensions, leading to higher unemployment rates and potential unrest among the population.
Decoupling Technology: Severing China’s Lifeline
Beyond tariffs, Trump’s administration is poised to decouple U.S. and Chinese technology industries. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. has already moved to ban Chinese tech giants like Huawei and ZTE from accessing critical American technology. A second Trump term would likely take this a step further, cutting off Chinese companies from critical semiconductors, 5G technology, and artificial intelligence systems.
China’s reliance on American-made semiconductors is particularly vulnerable. The U.S. accounts for nearly 30% of global chip exports, and without access to the most advanced microchips, China’s booming tech industry would grind to a halt. In response, China has attempted to develop domestic alternatives but has made little progress. In 2023, China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency stood at just 16%, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. A complete decoupling of tech supply chains would not only harm China’s tech sector but could lead to a major crisis in the wider economy.
By 2025, China’s ability to maintain technological growth could be severely hampered, as industries dependent on cutting-edge technologies—like electronics, robotics, and artificial intelligence—become increasingly reliant on imports from the U.S. and its allies. This could delay China’s efforts to assert global dominance in sectors such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and electric vehicles, giving the West a critical opportunity to reassert its technological leadership.
Sanctions and Financial Isolation: Choking the Chinese Economy
The U.S. has already imposed financial sanctions on Chinese officials linked to human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet, but under Trump’s second term, this approach could escalate dramatically. In addition to sanctions targeting Chinese tech companies, Trump is likely to expand economic restrictions aimed at China’s major state-owned enterprises, which dominate sectors ranging from energy and mining to transportation and telecommunications.
During his first term, Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which sanctioned Chinese officials responsible for cracking down on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. A re-elected Trump would likely build on this legacy, targeting China’s key economic players with sanctions that would freeze their access to Western financial markets and the global banking system.
The impact on China’s economy could be devastating. In 2023, more than 70% of China’s financial transactions were settled through the U.S. dollar. Financial sanctions could severely limit China’s ability to access international capital markets, forcing the government to rely on costly alternatives like state-backed loans or deals with countries like Russia or Iran. This would raise China’s borrowing costs and make it more difficult for the CCP to manage its ever-growing debt.
Moreover, Chinese banks and companies that rely on global financial systems would be hit with a wave of restrictions, making it harder for them to do business with foreign companies and governments. A financial “decoupling” between the U.S. and China would signal to global investors that China is a risky place to do business, sending shockwaves through its stock market and further damaging consumer confidence.
Tibet and Xinjiang: Economic Leverage Against Chinese Aggression
China’s economic reach is built on the exploitation of natural resources in regions like Tibet and Xinjiang. Trump’s victory could provide the U.S. with an opportunity to target these practices through sanctions on Chinese companies involved in mining and resource extraction.
Tibet’s rich mineral resources, including lithium, rare earth metals, and gold, are a key pillar of China’s economy. However, China’s exploitation of Tibet’s resources comes at the cost of the Tibetan people, who face forced labor, land seizures, and destruction of their cultural heritage. In 2020, China’s State Council announced that it would invest $1.5 billion in mining projects in Tibet, further entrenching Beijing’s control over the region.
Under Trump, the U.S. could push for international sanctions on Chinese companies involved in Tibetan resource extraction. By pressuring global companies not to source materials from Tibet, the U.S. could effectively choke China’s ability to profit from its illegal occupation of the region. Furthermore, Trump’s administration could target companies that profit from forced labor in Xinjiang, placing additional pressure on China to rethink its aggressive policies in these areas.
A Global Economic Strategy: Confronting China’s Authoritarianism
Trump’s approach to China is not just about tariffs or sanctions—it’s about leveraging America’s position as the world’s largest consumer market and financial powerhouse to isolate China and curtail its global ambitions. Trump’s policies could undermine China’s economic rise by destabilizing its access to key markets, critical technologies, and capital.
China’s long-term economic stability hinges on its ability to continue exporting goods, accessing advanced technologies, and attracting foreign investment. Trump’s victory would deprive Beijing of these lifelines, forcing it to recalibrate its economic policies and potentially giving the West the upper hand in the global competition for economic dominance.
For China, Trump’s re-election could signal the end of its unchallenged economic rise. As Trump intensifies his trade war, technology decoupling, and sanctions regime, Beijing will face the stark reality that it cannot sustain its growth without reforming its internal policies—especially its human rights abuses, unsustainable resource exploitation, and authoritarian governance.
Trump’s economic assault on China is poised to be the most effective check on Beijing’s global ambitions, forcing China to reckon with its vulnerabilities and rethink its place in the global order. As China’s economic empire faces unprecedented pressure, the world will watch as Trump’s economic power reshapes the balance of global power—and delivers a decisive blow to China’s unchecked expansion.
