The U.S. President (currently Donald Trump) is expected to hold a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping next week, on the sidelines of the Asia‑Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea.
In remarks ahead of the meeting, President Trump identified several agenda items—including rare earths, soybeans, fentanyl precursors and Taiwan.
Taiwan: context and significance
Status & Background
Taiwan is a democratically governed island with its own administration. The government in Beijing (the People’s Republic of China, PRC) regards Taiwan as part of “one China” and has never renounced use of force to achieve eventual reunification.
The U.S. maintains a policy of “one-China” (i.e., recognising the PRC diplomatically) while also remaining the principal security partner and supplier of military equipment to Taiwan. The U.S. policy does not explicitly endorse Taiwanese independence; at the same time the island remains a focal point of U.S. strategic interest.
Why it is on the agenda
– Given that President Trump named Taiwan explicitly as one of the top issues he expects to discuss with China, it is clearly a live diplomatic topic.
– Taiwan sits at the heart of broader U.S.–China strategic competition: regional security in the Indo-Pacific, high-technology supply chains (e.g., semiconductors), and questions of military deterrence.
– For Beijing, Taiwan is the “core interest” and the most sensitive topic in relations with Washington.
What to look for at the talks
Here are key issues and outcomes to watch:
- Language and tone: Will both leaders reaffirm a commitment to no forced change of status across the Taiwan Strait? Will they emphasise stability and avoidance of military conflict?
- Security assurances or deterrence: The U.S. will likely emphasise its strong military posture and partnerships in the region; China may push for U.S. restraint in supporting Taiwan’s defence or in official contacts.
- Trade & technology linkages: Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and rare earth supply chains are deeply embedded in U.S.–China economic competition; these may surface in the Taiwan context.
- Diplomatic signals: Even if major shifts are avoided, the meeting may produce signals — e.g., reaffirmation of no change in U.S. official policy regarding Taiwan’s status, or China’s reaffirmation of its “reunification” goal.
- Potential risks: A mismatch in expectations (e.g., U.S. pushing for stronger deterrence, China demanding reduced U.S. involvement) could raise tensions.
Implications
- For Taiwan: The island’s security and status remain highly sensitive. Any public commitments or private understandings reached could influence Taipei’s strategic calculations and its relations with both Washington and Beijing.
- For U.S.–China relations: Taiwan remains a possible flashpoint. A stable outcome could ease one dimension of rivalry; a contentious or unresolved encounter could heighten strategic risk.
- For the wider region: Indo-Pacific partners (Japan, Australia, South Korea) will closely monitor how the U.S. and China manage the Taiwan question; it has implications for regional alliances, freedom of navigation, and crisis stability.
Taiwan is not China—it is a vibrant, self-governing democracy that stands on its own. The island has its own government, military, borders, currency, and elections, embodying freedoms and human rights that sharply contrast with authoritarian rule in Beijing. Taiwan has never been governed by the People’s Republic of China, and its 23 million people have repeatedly made clear that their future should be decided only by Taiwan, not by the CCP. The world’s democracies increasingly recognize Taiwan as a beacon of freedom in Asia, and its right to exist, thrive, and choose its own path must be defended—not negotiated away.
