Nearly eight years after the 2018 agreement between Beijing and the Vatican, conditions for China’s Catholics appear not to have improved but to have hardened. What was presented as a diplomatic breakthrough is now being questioned by rights groups, clergy, and analysts who say it has effectively strengthened state control over religious life rather than protected it.
The deal, which allowed the Chinese government a decisive role in appointing bishops with Vatican approval, was intended to bridge the long-standing divide between the state-backed church and underground Catholic communities loyal to Rome. Instead, critics argue it has narrowed the space for independent religious practice.
According to Human Rights Watch, pressure on Catholics who refuse to join the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association has intensified. Clergy are reportedly being coerced into registering with state institutions, while those who resist face surveillance, restrictions on movement, and, in some cases, detention. “Catholics in China face escalating repression that violates their religious freedoms,” said researcher Yalkun Uluyol, urging the Vatican to reassess its position.
The broader framework behind this tightening control is the policy of “Sinicization,” aggressively promoted under Xi Jinping. Framed as cultural adaptation, the policy in practice demands ideological conformity. Religious teachings must align with Communist Party doctrine, clergy must undergo political indoctrination, and expressions of faith are expected to reflect “socialist values.”
In practical terms, this has reshaped Catholic life across China. Churches are fitted with surveillance systems, attendance is monitored, and in some regions worshippers are required to pre-register before attending services. Religious education for children has been restricted, with reports indicating that parents are discouraged—or outright warned against passing on religious beliefs to the next generation. Internal guidance in some areas has gone further, instructing schools to encourage students to report families who engage in religious instruction at home.
New regulations introduced since 2018 have also curtailed charitable and social work traditionally carried out by Catholic organizations. Orphanages and community services linked to churches have been shut down or stripped of legal standing, effectively dismantling one of the most visible expressions of faith in practice.The consequences are not theoretical. Reports indicate that bishops approved by the Vatican have faced detention or prolonged restrictions, while others have disappeared from public view. At the same time, the pipeline for underground clergy is shrinking, raising concerns that independent Catholic structures could be gradually extinguished.
The Vatican’s response has drawn increasing criticism. While it has continued to cooperate with Beijing and has approved new bishop appointments under the agreement, it has largely avoided public confrontation over alleged abuses. This silence has unsettled segments of China’s Catholic community, with some believers expressing a sense of abandonment. Interviews cited by rights groups indicate that underground Catholics fear the long-term erosion of their tradition as state-backed structures become the only viable option.
Beijing, for its part, defends its policies as necessary to ensure stability and eliminate foreign influence. The Chinese government has long viewed the Vatican’s authority as a challenge to its sovereignty, a position rooted in historical tensions dating back to the expulsion of the papal envoy in the 1950s under Mao Zedong. Since then, control over religion has been treated as a core element of political governance.
However, critics argue that the current trajectory goes far beyond regulation. They contend that the state is not merely overseeing religion but reshaping it transforming belief systems into instruments that reinforce political authority. The distinction between faith and ideology, they say, is being deliberately erased.
The pattern is not limited to Catholicism. Similar measures have been documented among Tibetan Buddhists and Muslim communities, where places of worship have been demolished, religious leaders detained, and cultural practices restricted. Analysts view these developments as part of a unified strategy aimed at bringing all forms of belief under centralized control.
International legal standards present a stark contrast. Article 18 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights guarantees the freedom to practice religion individually or in community, in public or private. Observers argue that China’s current policies particularly those involving coercion, surveillance, and ideological conditioning are difficult to reconcile with these commitments.
What remains is a widening gap between official assurances and lived reality. The 2018 agreement was meant to ease tensions and protect the faithful. Instead, it has become a focal point for criticism, seen by many as enabling the very system it was supposed to moderate.For millions of Catholics in China, the issue is no longer diplomatic but existential. The choice increasingly appears to be between compliance and marginalization—between a state-defined version of faith and the risk of practicing it outside the boundaries imposed from above.
